From version 31.1
edited by S2S_ver
on 2016/07/04 07:54
To version 32.1
edited by S2S_ver
on 2016/07/19 12:28
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Content changes

... ... @@ -97,7 +97,7 @@
97 97 **3.2) The pilot real-time sub-seasonal MME prediction in WMO LC-LRFMME**
98 98
99 99
100 -The WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble ([[LC-LRFMME>>url:https://www.wmolc.org/]]) has recently developed a pilot system for real-time multi-model subseasonal forecasts using real-time forecasts (and hindcasts) from a subset of models contributing to the WWRP/WCRP S2S research project accessible via ECMWF data archive. //**Following [[//**this link**//>>url:http://s2sprediction.net/file/documents_reports/Report_on_subseasonal_MME_in_LC-LRFMME_MAY2016.pdf]] the S2S research community has the opportunity to see the initial developments conducted by the LC-LRFMME and [[(% class="wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink" %)//**provide feedback**//>>path:mailto:[email protected]]](%%) for future developments and improvements in this pilot under development system**//. Subseasonal models from four GPCs are currently used: ECMWF, Exeter, Tokyo and Washington. A range of forecast products has been developed including probabilities for tercile categories of weekly averages of 2m temperature and rainfall as well as the MJO and BSISO indices. Verification has also been generated using ROC curves and scores as well as anomaly pattern correlation for a few case studies.
100 +The WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble ([[LC-LRFMME>>url:https://www.wmolc.org/]]) has recently developed a pilot system for real-time multi-model subseasonal forecasts using real-time forecasts (and hindcasts) from a subset of models contributing to the WWRP/WCRP S2S research project accessible via ECMWF data archive. //**Following [[//**this link**//>>url:http://s2sprediction.net/file/documents_reports/Report_on_subseasonal_MME_in_LC-LRFMME_MAY2016.pdf]] the S2S research community has the opportunity to see the initial developments conducted by the LC-LRFMME and [[(% class="wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink wikiinternallink" %)//**provide feedback**//>>path:mailto:[email protected]]](%%) for future developments and improvements in this pilot under development system**//. Subseasonal models from four GPCs are currently used: ECMWF, Exeter, Tokyo and Washington. A range of forecast products has been developed including probabilities for tercile categories of weekly averages of 2m temperature and rainfall as well as the MJO and BSISO indices. Verification has also been generated using ROC curves and scores as well as anomaly pattern correlation for a few case studies.
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102 102
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... ... @@ -304,15 +304,20 @@
304 304
305 305 (% height="407" width="767" %)
306 306 |**Reanalysis**|**Source**|**References**
307 -|[[20CR>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/]]|NOAA CIRES|[[Compo et al. (2006)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-2-175]]
307 +|[[20CR
308 +Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/]]|NOAA CIRES|[[Compo et al. (2006)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-87-2-175]]
308 308 |[[ERA-Interim>>url:http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/interim-full-daily/]]|ECMWF|[[Dee et al. (2011)>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.828/abstract]]
309 309 |[[ERA-20C>>url:http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/]]|ECMWF|[[Poli et al. (2015)>>url:http://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2015/11700-era-20c-deterministic.pdf]]
310 310 |[[ERA-20CM>>url:http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-20cm-model-integrations]]|ECMWF|[[Hersbach et al. (2015)>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2528/abstract]]
311 311 |[[JRA-55>>url:http://jra.kishou.go.jp/]]|JMA|[[Kobayashi et al. (2015)>>url:https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/93/1/93_2015-001/_article]]
312 -|[[MERRA>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/merra/]]|NASA|[[Rienecker et al. (2011)>>url:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1]]
313 -|[[MERRA-2>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/]]|NASA|[[Bosilovich et al. (2015)>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/docs/Bosilovich803.pdf]]
314 -|[[NCEP R1>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html]]|NCEP NCAR|[[Kalnay et al. (1996)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2]]
315 -|[[NCEP R2>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html]]|NCEP NCAR|[[Kanamitsu et al. (2002)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631]]
313 +|[[MERRA
314 +Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/merra/]]|NASA|[[Rienecker et al. (2011)>>url:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1]]
315 +|[[MERRA-2
316 +Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/]]|NASA|[[Bosilovich et al. (2015)>>url:http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/tm/docs/Bosilovich803.pdf]]
317 +|[[NCEP R1
318 +Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html]]|NCEP NCAR|[[Kalnay et al. (1996)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0437:TNYRP%3E2.0.CO;2]]
319 +|[[NCEP R2
320 +Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html]]|NCEP NCAR|[[Kanamitsu et al. (2002)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631]]
316 316 |[[NCEP CFSR>>url:http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/]]|NCEP NCAR|[[Saha et al. (2010)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1]]
317 317
318 318 Additional information about all reanalysis listed above is available at theWeb-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools ([[WRIT>>url:https://reanalyses.org/atmosphere/writ]])
... ... @@ -438,7 +438,7 @@
438 438 |Precipitation|(((
439 439 [[CMAP>>url:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cmap.html]]
440 440
441 -
446 +[[Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.Merged_Analysis/]]
442 442 )))|(((
443 443 NOAA NCEP
444 444
... ... @@ -447,7 +447,7 @@
447 447 |Precipitation|(((
448 448 [[GPCC>>url:ftp://ftp-anon.dwd.de/pub/data/gpcc/html/download_gate.html]]
449 449
450 -
455 +[[Access via IRI Data Library>>url:http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.WCRP/.GCOS/.GPCC/index.html?Set-Language=en]]
451 451 )))|DWD|Daily/Monthly (1.0 x 1.0 degrees in lat and lon)|(((
452 452 [[Schamm et al. (2013)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FG_D_100]]
453 453
... ... @@ -456,7 +456,7 @@
456 456 |Precipitation|(((
457 457 [[CAMS-OPI>>url:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_precip/html/wpage.cams_opi.html]]
458 458
459 -
464 +[[Access via IRI Data Library>>url:https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.NOAA/.NCEP/.CPC/.CAMS_OPI/]]
460 460 )))|NOAA NCEP
461 461 CPC|Monthly (2.5 x 2.5 degrees in lat and lon)|[[Xie and Arkin (1997)>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078%3C2539:GPAYMA%3E2.0.CO;2]]
462 462

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