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edited by S2S_ver
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Metadata changes

Title
S2S sub-project on verification and products

Content changes

... ... @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
1 -**1) Objectives:**
1 +**1) Objectives**
2 2
3 3 * Recommend verification metrics and datasets for assessing forecast quality of S2S forecasts
4 4 * Provide guidance for a potential centralized verification effort for comparing forecast quality of different S2S forecast systems, including the comparison of multi-model and individual ensemble systems and consider linkages with users and applications
... ... @@ -5,7 +5,7 @@
5 5
6 6 The [[//S2S verification science plan//>>url:http://s2sprediction.net/resources/documents/sub-projects/Verification.pdf]] provides more detailed information about this sub-project.
7 7
8 -**2) Membership:**
8 +**2) Membership**
9 9
10 10 Caio Coelho (CPTEC/INPE, Brazil)
11 11
... ... @@ -20,14 +20,27 @@
20 20 Joanne Robbins (UKMO, UK)
21 21
22 22
23 -**3) List of published literature on verification methods of relevance to S2S verification**
24 24
25 -Below in sections 3.1 and 3.2 is a selected list of published literature (including books, technical reports and scientific papers) on verification methodologies of relevance for S2S forecast verification. A more comprehensive list and additional information on forecast verification is available at [[http:~~/~~/www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/>>url:http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/]] a website of the [[//WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research.//>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/Forecast_Verification.html]]
24 +**3) Linkages with coordinated WMO operational activities**
26 26
27 -Please note that further down on this wiki page Section 4 provides a list of published literature on S2S verification including in section 4.1 papers on the assessment of S2S systems forecast skill, in section 4.2 papers on the assessment of MJO/ISO forecast skill, in section 4.3 papers on the assessment of monsoon systems forecast skill and associated characteristics, in section 4.4 papers on applications and in section 4.5 on seamless verification.
26 +The research performed in S2S has strong linkages with WMO operational activities, particularly with the CBS/CCl Expert Team on Operational Prediction from Sub-seasonal to Longer time-scale ([[ET-OPSLS>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/ccl/opace/opace3/ET-OPSLS.php]]) and the WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble ([[LC-LRFMME>>url:https://www.wmolc.org/]]). The S2S project in collaboration with WMO is therefore bridging research and operation activities to drive science and technology forward for producing better weather/climate information for a number of application sectors.
28 28
29 -**3.1) Books and technical reports**
28 +As part of this collaboration between S2S and WMO the S2S sub-project on verification and products has been conducting the following activities:
30 30
30 +- Preparation of questionnaire on subseasonal verification practices in operational centres (both in operations and research) to help identify gaps and guide novel developments. This questionnaire was sent to the 12 designated [[WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs)>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/gpc/gpc.php]], the results were discussed with the ET-OPSLS and are summarized in [[this document>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/ET-OPSLS_Beijing2016/documents/Doc_6.3.4.doc]].
31 +
32 +- Preparation of [[document on S2S application-oriented activities and operational needs>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/ET-OPSLS_Beijing2016/documents/Doc-6-3-5_OPSLS_S2S_applications_input_Final.doc]] as input for the ET-OPSLS
33 +
34 +
35 +
36 +**4) List of published literature on verification methods of relevance to S2S verification**
37 +
38 +Below in sections 4.1 and 4.2 is a selected list of published literature (including books, technical reports and scientific papers) on verification methodologies of relevance for S2S forecast verification. A more comprehensive list and additional information on forecast verification is available at [[http:~~/~~/www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/>>url:http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/]] a website of the [[//WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research.//>>url:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/Forecast_Verification.html]]
39 +
40 +Please note that further down on this wiki page Section 5 provides a list of published literature on S2S verification including in section 5.1 papers on the assessment of S2S systems forecast skill, in section 5.2 papers on the assessment of MJO/ISO forecast skill, in section 5.3 papers on the assessment of monsoon systems forecast skill and associated characteristics, in section 5.4 papers on applications and in section 5.5 on seamless verification.
41 +
42 +**4.1) Books and technical reports**
43 +
31 31 Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (2012) //Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. 2nd Edition//. Wiley and Sons Ltd, 274 pp.
32 32
33 33 Stanski HR, Wilson LJ, Burrows WR (1989) //Survey of common verification methods in meteorology//. World Weather Watch Tech. Rept. No.8, WMO/TD No.358, WMO, Geneva, 114 pp. Available [[here>>url:http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/Stanski_et_al/Stanski_et_al.html]].
... ... @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@
35 35 Wilks DS (2011) //Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 3rd Edition//. Elsevier, 676 pp.
36 36
37 37
38 -**3.2) Scientific papers**
51 +**4.2) Scientific papers**
39 39
40 40 Bradley AA, Hashino T, Schwartz SS (2003) Distributions-oriented verification of probability forecasts for small data samples. //Wea. Forecasting//, **18**, 903-917. [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018%3C0903:DVOPFF%3E2.0.CO;2>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018%3C0903:DVOPFF%3E2.0.CO;2]]
41 41
... ... @@ -108,10 +108,10 @@
108 108 Wilson LJ, Burrows WR, Lanzinger A (1999) A strategy for verification of weather element forecasts from an ensemble prediction system. //Mon. Wea. Rev.//, **127**, 956-970. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<0956:ASFVOW>2.0.CO;2>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493%281999%29127%3C0956:ASFVOW%3E2.0.CO;2]]
109 109
110 110
111 -**4) List of published literature on S2S verification**
124 +**5) List of published literature on S2S verification**
112 112
113 113
114 -**4.1) Assessment of S2S systems forecast skill**
127 +**5.1) Assessment of S2S systems forecast skill**
115 115
116 116 Hudson D, Alves O, Hendon HH, Marshall AG (2011) Bridging the gap between weather and seasonal forecasting: Intraseasonal forecasting for Australia. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137,673–689, doi:10.1002/qj.769 [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.769/abstract>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.769/abstract]]
117 117
... ... @@ -147,7 +147,7 @@
147 147
148 148
149 149
150 -**4.2) Assessment of MJO/ISO forecast skill**
163 +**5.2) Assessment of MJO/ISO forecast skill**
151 151
152 152 Gottschalck J, Wheeler M, Weickmann K, Vitart F, Savage N, Lin H, Hendon H, Waliser D, Sperber K, Nakagawa M, Prestrelo C, Flatau M, Higgins W (2010) A Framework for Assessing Operational Madden–Julian Oscillation Forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group Project. //Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.//, **91**, 1247–1258. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2816.1]]
153 153
... ... @@ -181,7 +181,7 @@
181 181 Vitart F, Molteni F (2010) Simulation of the Madden- Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. //Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society// **136**:10.1002/qj.v136:649, 842-855. [[http:~~/~~/onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.623/pdf>>url:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.623/pdf]]\\
182 182
183 183
184 -**4.3) Assessment of monsoon systems forecast skill and associated characteristics**
197 +**5.3) Assessment of monsoon systems forecast skill and associated characteristics**
185 185
186 186 Jones C, Carvalho LMV, Liebmann B (2012) Forecast Skill of the South American Monsoon System. //J. Climate//, **25**, 1883–1889. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00586.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00586.1]]
187 187
... ... @@ -196,7 +196,7 @@
196 196 Drosdowsky W, Wheeler MC (2014): Predicting the onset of the north Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. //Wea. Forecasting//, 29, 150-161. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00091.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00091.1]]\\
197 197
198 198
199 -**4.4) Applications**
212 +**5.4) Applications**
200 200
201 201 Calanca P, Bolius D, Weigel AP, Liniger MA (2011) Application of long-range weather forecasts to agricultural decision problems in Europe. //The Journal of Agricultural Science// **149**, 15-22. [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021859610000729>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0021859610000729]]
202 202
... ... @@ -209,6 +209,6 @@
209 209
210 210
211 211
212 -**4.5) Seamless verification**
225 +**5.5) Seamless verification**
213 213
214 214 Zhu H, Wheeler MC, Sobel AH, Hudson D (2014) Seamless Precipitation Prediction Skill in the Tropics and Extratropics from a Global Model. //Mon. Wea. Rev.//, **142**, 1556–1569. doi: [[http:~~/~~/dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00222.1>>url:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00222.1]]

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